Published 29 May 2026 · SolarAtap.my Editorial
Equity analysts at Rakuten Trade and TA Research expect the SuRIA Home rebate programme to sustain residential solar adoption in Malaysia despite paying a lower per-kilowatt rebate than the prior SolaRIS scheme, according to coverage in The Star on 28 May 2026.
Their conviction rests on three structural tailwinds the rebate sits on top of: rising grid electricity costs from Middle East-driven fuel volatility, TNB's automatic fuel adjustment (AFA) surcharges swinging back into positive territory, and the steady growth of household EV adoption.
TA Research forecasts SuRIA Home will drive 250 MWac of residential rooftop solar — matching the national quota.
The implied engineering, procurement and construction opportunity for Malaysian solar contractors at full take-up.
TA Research maintained its sector call premised on demand-supply tightness in the generation market.
TNB-projected June surcharge vs an April rebate of 0.47 sen/kWh — a 3.39 sen/kWh swing.
Rakuten Trade head of equity sales Vincent Lau told The Star that "the rebates under the SuRIA Home programme still provide some support," noting rooftop solar demand had previously weakened during periods without incentives.
"For larger households, especially those with one or two EVs at home with their own EV charger, they will probably move ahead with rooftop solar installations — we still expect decent take-up."
— Vincent Lau, Rakuten Trade (via The Star, 28 May 2026)
Households with EVs sit on top of doubled demand — not just lighting and aircon, but vehicle charging. Self-generated solar offsets both grid imports and EV-charging cost simultaneously, materially improving payback math even at the lower RM 600/kWac rebate.
"We believe SuRIA Home could accelerate take-up of residential rooftop solar, notwithstanding lower rebates. The timely rollout of the SuRIA Home initiative comes as grid power becomes costlier due to the Middle East conflict."
— TA Research (via The Star, 28 May 2026)
The 250 MWac forecast is significant. It almost exactly matches the 250 MW national quota PETRA set for SuRIA Home — meaning TA Research is essentially calling that the quota will be fully consumed by 31 December 2026.
| Programme | Per kWac | Max cap | System size at cap |
|---|---|---|---|
| SolaRIS (prior) | RM 1,000 | RM 4,000 | 4 kWac |
| SuRIA Home (current) | RM 600 | RM 3,000 | 5 kWac |
Per kWac the headline rebate drops 40%, but the eligible system size at cap rises from 4 kWac to 5 kWac — a small consolation if you were aiming for the upper end of the residential range.
Per The Star, Tenaga Nasional's projected AFA trajectory has flipped sharply negative for end-users from April onwards:
| Month | AFA position |
|---|---|
| April 2026 | Rebate of 0.47 sen/kWh (consumer benefit) |
| May 2026 | Surcharge of 1.38 sen/kWh |
| June 2026 | Surcharge of 2.92 sen/kWh |
For a household using 1,500 kWh/month, the June surcharge alone adds roughly RM 44 to the monthly bill before any baseline tariff move — exactly the kind of bill-pain signal that converts solar enquiries into signed contracts.
If you're sitting on a Solar ATAP decision and waiting for clearer signal, this week's analyst coverage closes most of the open questions:
Primary source: "SuRIA scheme timely for residential solar adoption" by Elim Poon — The Star, 28 May 2026. This article paraphrases the analyst quotes and figures published by The Star with our commentary on what they mean for Malaysian homeowners.
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